The Real Risk to Real Estate Today

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through a real estate lens.

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16d ago 1:10:23

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The Dollar Standard, Global Liquidity, and the Coming Economic Reckoning In my expansive and highly accessible conversation with renowned economist Richard Duncan, we discuss the logic behind his long-running critique of the international monetary system, a system Richard calls the Dollar Standard where he explains why current U.S. policy moves, the system could come crashing down. The Origins of the Dollar Standard and America’s “Exorbitant Privilege” The Dollar Standard, Duncan explains, evolved out of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system (implemented after WWII) in 1971. Under Bretton Woods, currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold. But when other countries accumulated more dollars than the U.S. had gold, President Nixon suspended dollar convertibility, effectively ending the gold standard. What replaced it was a floating currency regime and the birth of the Dollar Standard. Crucially, the U.S. began running persistent trade deficits, importing goods and sending dollars abroad. These dollars, in turn, were recycled by foreign central banks, especially in trade surplus countries like China and Japan, into U.S. dollar-denominated assets, primarily Treasuries, but also equities and real estate. This loop, Duncan argues, created America’s “exorbitant privilege”: the ability to fund government spending and consumer imports at artificially low interest rates, because foreign buyers are constantly reinvesting in U.S. debt and assets. The phrase "exorbitant privilege" was first coined by Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, who later became President of France, but at the time was serving as France’s Minister of Finance under President Charles de Gaulle in the 1960s. He used the term to criticize the unique advantages enjoyed by the United States under the Bretton Woods system, particularly the ability to run persistent deficits by issuing debt in its own currency (the U.S. dollar), while foreign nations had to hold and use those dollars to trade and build reserves. Giscard and de Gaulle saw this as an unfair financial hegemony that allowed the U.S. to “live beyond its means” at the expense of others. The phrase was intended as a critique but, ironically, it's now often used in a neutral or even admiring tone by economists. How Global Credit Became a Bubble Machine Duncan makes the case that this system, while benefiting the U.S. enormously, has been fundamentally destabilizing for the rest of the world. As surplus countries absorb dollar inflows, their central banks convert them into local currency, often by printing their own money. That liquidity ends up in domestic banking systems, fueling excessive credit growth, asset bubbles, and financial crises. It happened in Japan in the late 1980s. It triggered the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s. And it helped fuel China’s real estate boom and the global credit bubble that preceded the 2008 collapse. Notably, Duncan predicted the 2008 financial crisis in his 2003 book, The Dollar Crisis, warning that runaway global imbalances would eventually lead to a systemic shock. He now argues that post-2008 bailouts and quantitative easing (QE) only expanded the bubble rather than fixing the problem. Trump’s Trade Doctrine: Potential to Destabilize the System Fast forward to 2025: Trump is back in office, and his administration is moving quickly to reshape global trade. Duncan’s concern is that the Trump administration’s effort to eliminate the U.S. trade deficit by imposing high tariffs and pursuing a strategic devaluation of the dollar, undermines the very structure that has sustained U.S. prosperity and global financial stability for decades. Why? Because every U.S. trade deficit is matched by a capital inflow. It’s a balance-of-payments identity: if the U.S. runs a $1.1 trillion current account deficit, there must be a $1.1 trillion capital surplus (i.e., inflows) to finance it. Take that away and you choke off the supply of global liquidity that props up asset prices worldwide. The Doom Loop: What Happens If Capital Stops Flowing In Duncan walks through the scenario:

If tariffs succeed in shrinking the trade deficit, dollars stop flowing abroad.
Without those dollars, foreign central banks have fewer reserves to recycle into U.S. assets.
This reduces demand for Treasuries, pushing interest rates up.
Rising rates crush real estate, stocks, and credit-dependent sectors.
Simultaneously, trade-surplus economies face a liquidity crunch, leading to job losses, bankruptcies, and potential financial crises.

The result? A global depression triggered not by market excess this time, but by deliberate government policy. Duncan notes that the Trump administration has already blinked once in rolling back tariffs on China after markets began to seize. But the damage to global confidence in the dollar’s stability and America’s reliability as a trading partner may already be done. CRE-Specific Risks For CRE professionals, Duncan’s framework suggests several key risks:

Interest Rate Volatility: If capital inflows decline, Treasury demand will fall and rates may rise, increasing financing costs and repricing assets downward.
Foreign Capital Flight: A weakening dollar and escalating trade tensions could lead to foreign divestment from U.S. real estate, especially in coastal gateway cities where foreign investors are dominant.
Liquidity Shock: Reduced global liquidity may tighten credit markets, making debt financing harder to access for new acquisitions or refis.
Wealth Effect Reversal: Falling stock prices and higher rates could curb consumer spending and investor confidence, affecting retail, hospitality, and housing-linked CRE.

Is There a Way Out? Despite the dire tone, Duncan offers a constructive alternative. In his more recent book, The Money Revolution, he advocates using the U.S. government’s borrowing capacity, enabled by dollar dominance and low rates, to invest aggressively in future-focused industries: AI, biotech, quantum computing, green energy. In short: inflate productively, not destructively. Use fiat-financed public investment to grow out of the debt bubble, rather than letting it implode through austerity or protectionism. But he acknowledges that political will may be lacking and that, without it, the only other option will be another round of massive QE when the next crisis hits. Final Thought Duncan’s message is clear: we are not playing by gold standard rules anymore. The U.S. economy, and the world’s, runs on confidence, liquidity, and the flow of capital. Disrupt that system and we may find ourselves testing whether the Fed and Treasury can reflate the bubble one more time. *** You may not agree with Richard’s perspective but, as a real estate investor, understanding differing points of view helps in underwriting investment risk by incorporating possible downsides into exit strategies. This is a fascinating and accessible discussion. Tune in if you want to understand the real risks underpinning your real estate investment decisions in the coming months. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get:

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